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- Summer 1997 "Update" Newsletter Article -
Computer simulation predicts effects of farm water shortages
From CATI Publication #970701
Copyright © 1997. All rights reserved.
The organization of typical San Joaquin Valley farming operations is likely to be affected by a number of differing factors in the future. Among the most important are water availability and cost. In addition, changes in farm programs may alter the balance between cotton, grains, vegetables, alfalfa and other field crops.
Research completed by professor James Cothern of the Department of Agricultural Economics at California State University, Fresno provides some insight as to how farmers may adjust to some of these constraints. The data are contained in a new publication produced by the California Agricultural Technology Institute (CATI) and titled "Evaluating Production Alternatives on a Model San Joaquin Valley Farm."
The research was accomplished using a computer simulation of a San Joaquin Valley row crop operation - the type which produces the major proportion of food and fiber in California.
The model farm, consisting of 5,000 acres with eight major crop activities, as well as differing soils and labor and water use requirements, provides a realistic view of how farmers think and act when confronted with varying market and institutional problems.
The model also provides insight into questions frequently asked about particular crop choices and rotational patterns, such as why are "high value" crop acres not increasing more rapidly in California? Why do farmers continue to grow high-water-using crops like alfalfa? Under what conditions would these crops be eliminated?
Several important factors affect these issues. One is the cost and availability of water. When water supplies are limited, for example, farmers must maximize returns per acre-foot of water. A crop like onions or cantaloupes may have a high return per acre, but if water is to be constrained, this same amount of water may be better utilized in a crop which has a lower return per acre but a higher return per acre-foot of water used.
Several varying scenarios were evaluated using the model, but its greatest potential lies in its use by the individual farm manager. The model lends itself well to evaluating future production possibilities based on individual farm situations.
Copies of the farm model publication and other publications, produced through the Center for Agricultural Business (CAB), can be viewed or requested using the order form at Research Publications section.
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Copyright © 2000. All rights reserved.
CALIFORNIA AGRICULTURAL TECHNOLOGY INSTITUTE - CATI
College of Agricultural Sciences and Technology
California State University, Fresno
