- Fall 1994 "Update" Newsletter Article -

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TRADE PROJECTIONS
Annual agribusiness conference will feature specialist in long-term strategic planning

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From CATI Publication #941001
Copyright © 1994. All rights reserved.

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Leading international business consultant and strategist Michael Silva will probably confess, during the upcoming Agribusiness Management Conference in Fresno, that he doesn't know much about farming.

In fact, he may say he knows "absolutely nothing" about agriculture.

But that just might provide him the best qualifications for making straightforward, unbiased suggestions that will help leaders of California's agricultural industry face the realities of global competition at the turn of this century.

Silva, who has addressed leaders of more than half of the Fortune 500 companies, may not know all the steps needed to produce a can of cling peach halves, but he is known for offering unique insights into where that can and other cans of peaches may be sold a year from now, and during the five, 10 and 15 years beyond that.

Silva will lead a variety of specialists addressing major California agriculture and agribusiness issues during this year's "Issues and Outlook for 1995" conference, to be held Nov. 10 at the Centre Plaza Holiday Inn in Fresno.

The 13th annual event also will feature addresses by Fred Cannon, senior vice president for Bank of America, and Robert C. Keeney, director of the Fruit and Vegetable Division of the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Agricultural Marketing Service. Cannon will discuss California's economy in 1995, while Keeney will discuss the increasingly controversial topic of "The Future of Federal Marketing Orders."

While Michael Silva acknowledges ignorance of the latest farming techniques, he offers a cornucopia of ideas in the areas of organizational strategy and planning. And his thoughts on marketing strategies are often more ethereal than earthly.

"If I get into the nuts and bolts of practical reality, I lose my ability to look too far in the future," Silva stated during a recent conference address. Yet his insights, and the questions he poses about future economic directions, set the framework for strategies that may well be necessary for long-term business survival.

For example, Silva considers the latest "ism" that will rise to global political prominence following the death of communism and even the demise of capitalism as we know it: That is consumerism.

"Consumerism worldwide is driving global change, and consumers are becoming different," Silva states. "They're no longer geo-politically as sensitive as they were before." And while this is being confirmed all over the globe, the consultant notes, it doesn't guarantee new profits for "high-quality" American exports because competition will be fierce.

"Quality is no longer a plus; it is taken for granted. It is not that you can charge more if you have a higher quality product. It is that you will not be in business at all if your product does not have high quality," Silva said.

Yet there still will be political forces affecting international trade and product pricing, the futurist warns. It is the continuing move to what he calls "triad economics," or global trade relationships dominated by three major political groups: the NAFTA group - The U.S., Canada and Mexico; the EC - western European countries, soon to include eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union; and the Pacific Rim countries, what he also calls the "Seven Tigers."

Silva wonders what kind of political pressures these alliances will inflict on each other vying for growing consumer markets in regions like South America and Russia, where the long-term potential for increased trade is almost staggering. "The whole concept of triad economics is going to become very important," he states.

Other topics Silva is prepared to forecast on are branded products vs. private label products; genetic engineering; consumer lifestyle choices; and management "baggage."

For those conference participants still concerned about making it through 1995, a supporting group of specialists will be on hand to project commodity and other trends for next year. They will sit on three outlook panels addressing the following areas: 1) crops, including cotton, tree fruits, tomatoes and grapes; 2) livestock, including dairy and beef cattle, poultry and feed grains; and 3) groundwater.

An additional session will address agricultural tax law changes and the use of financial analysis for agricultural loans.

The annual Agribusiness Management Conference is sponsored by California State University, Fresno's Center for Agricultural Business, the California Agricultural Technology Institute, and Bank of America Corp.

For registration information, see "Upcoming events" on this page.


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